Climate Dynamics at Colorado State University
We are using conceptual energy balance models, climate models, observations, and data driven methods and models to study how the ocean influences atmospheric feedbacks on large scales and stores and redistributes heat. We are studying first-order controls on Earth’s climate evolution over the last and next few decades, the concept of climate forcings, deep time paleo climate, and internal variability.
Group members
- Maria Rugenstein email, Since 2020, I am an assistant professor for climate dynamics at the Department of Atmospheric Scienceat Colorado State University in Fort Collins. I studied at ETH Zürich, completed my Master's research at Princeton University/GFDL, and dived into paleoclimate research for two years in Utrecht, before completing my PhD in Zürich with visits to Stanford University and the Carnegie Institute for Global Ecology and a PostDoc at MPI in Hamburg. I coordinated a model intercomparison of millennia long simulations of global coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Models, LongRunMIP, together with Jonah Bloch-Johnson, and initiated the Green's Function Model Intercomparison, lead by Jonah. Check out this US-clivar workshop on the pattern effect I chaired together with Cristi Proistosescu. My group is funded by NASA (NIP), NSF (CLD and P2C2), NOAA (MAPP), and DoE.Leif Fredericks, 2nd year PhD studentOlivia Lee, 3rd year Master's studentKillian McSweeney, 3rd year Master's studentAspen Morgan, 2nd year Master's studentSenne Van Loon, PostDoc, websiteTristan Rendfrey, PostDocBenjamin Johnson, PostDocChiara Ventrucci, visiting PhD student from University of BolognaVanessa Skiba, visiting PostDoc from Alfred Wegner InstituteFormer group members: Eva Holtanova (visiting fulbright researcher, now at Charles University in Prag); Yiyu Zheng (PhD from CSU, website); Shreya Dhame (PostDoc at MPI); Dhyey Solanki (Master's from CSU, now researcher at the Indian Institute of Technology); Marc Alessi (PhD from CSU, now lecturer at Cornell and researcher at the Union of Concerned Scientists); Dirk Olonscheck (PostDoc at MPI); Kenneth Tam (undergraduate research assistant, now graduate student at Rutgers University)
Publications
- Alessi, Connolly, Barnes, Rugenstein, 2025: Southern Hemisphere Surface Warming Drives Southwestern U.S. Precipitation According to AI-informed Climate Model Simulations, J. climate linkFredericks, Thompson, Rugenstein, 2025: Estimating the Pattern Effect Using Regularized Linear Regression, J. climate linkJoensson, Rugenstein, Bender, McCoy, Eidhammer, 2025: Parametric Sensitivity of Hemispheric Albedo Symmetry Weakly Constrains Shortwave Cloud Radiative Feedbacks in the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6, GRL linkVan Loon, Rugenstein, and Barnes, 2025: Reanalysis-based Global Radiative Response to Sea Surface Temperature Patterns: Evaluating the Ai2 Climate Emulator, GRL linkDhame, Olonscheck, Rugenstein, 2025: Higher-Resolution Climate Models Do Not Consistently Reproduce the Observed Tropical Pacific Warming Pattern, J. climate linkVan Loon, Rugenstein, and Barnes, 2025: Observation-based estimate of Earth's effective radiative forcing, PNAS linkZheng, Rugenstein, and Alessi, 2025: The Relationship between the Southern Ocean and the Southeastern Subtropical Pacific in Unforced and Forced Climate Model Simulations, J. Climate linkThompson, Rugenstein, Forster, Fredericks, 2025: An Observational Estimate of the Pattern Effect on Climate Sensitivity: The Importance of the Eastern Tropical Pacific and Land Areas, J. climate linkRugenstein, Van Loon, Barnes, 2025: Convolutional Neural Networks trained on internal variability predict forced response by learning the pattern effect, GRL linkDavis, Thompson, Rugenstein, Birner, 2025: Links Between Internal Variability and Forced Climate Feedbacks: The Importance of Patterns of Temperature Variability and Change, GRL linkLiu, Li, Li, Rugenstein, Thomas, 2024: Contrasting fast and slow intertropical convergence zone migrations linked to delayed Southern Ocean warming, Nature Climate Change linkAlessi and Rugenstein, 2024: Potential Near-Term Wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific Cooling Trend Reverses, GRL linkOlonscheck and Rugenstein, 2024: Coupled climate models systematically underestimate radiation response to surface forcing, GRL linkBloch-Johnson, Rugenstein, Alessi, and 10 others, 2024: The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol, JAMES linkRugenstein, Dhame, Olonscheck, Wills, Watanabe, Seager, 2023: Connecting the SST pattern problem and the hot model problem, GRL linkRugenstein, Zelinka, Karnauskas, Ceppi, Andrews, 2023: Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity, EOS linkAlessi and Rugenstein, 2023: Relevance of the pattern effect for near-future climate projections, GRL linkMitevski, Dong, Polvani, Rugenstein, Orbe, 2023: Non-monotonic feedback dependence on CO2 due to North Atlantic pattern effect, GRL linkRugenstein and Hakuba, 2023: Connecting Hemispheric Asymmetries of Planetary Albedo and Surface Temperature, GRL linkFredriksen, Smith, Modak, Rugenstein, 2023: 21st century scenario forcing increases more for CMIP6 than CMIP5 models, GRL linkBloch-Johnson, Rugenstein, Gregory, Cael, Andrews, 2022: Climate impact assessments should not discount 'hot' models, Nature linkSanderson and Rugenstein, 2022: Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance, Earth System Dynamics linkZheng, Rugenstein, Pieper, Beobide-Arsuaga, Baehr, 2022: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates, Earth System Dynamics linkBonan, Thompson, Newsom, Sun, Rugenstein, 2022: Transient and Equilibrium Responses of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation to Warming in Coupled Climate Models: The Role of Temperature and Salinity, J. Climate linkFredriksen, Rugenstein, Graversen, 2021: Estimating forcing with a nonconstant feedback parameter and linear response, JGR Atmospheres linkLu, He, Fuso, Rugenstein, 2021: Mechanisms of Fast Walker Circulation Responses to CO2 Forcing, GRL link pdfKing, and 9 others, 2021: Transient and quasi-equilibrium climate states at 1.5C and 2C global warming, Earth's Future linkCallahan, Chen, Rugenstein, Bloch-Johnson, Yang, Moyer, 2021: Robust decrease in ENSO amplitude under long-term warming, Nature Climate Change linkSchwarzwald, Poppick, Rugenstein, Bloch-Johnson, Wang, McInerney, Moyer, 2021: Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales, J. Climate linkBloch-Johnson, Rugenstein, Stolpe, Rohrschneider, Zheng, Gregory, 2020: Climate Sensitivity Increases Under Higher CO2 Levels Due to Feedback Temperature Dependence, GRL linkSherwood, Webb and 22 others, 2020: A combined assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity, Rev. of Geophys. press coverage press coverageFiedler, and 24 others, 2020: Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed Across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), MWR linkKnutti, Rugenstein, Hegerl, 2017: Beyond climate sensitivity, Nature Geoscience link updated Figure
- Rugenstein, Sedlacek, Knutti, 2016: Nonlinearities in patterns of long term ocean warming, GRL link pdf
- Knutti and Rugenstein, 2015: Feedbacks, climate sensitivity and the limits of linear models, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A link pdf
- Rugenstein, Stocchi, von der Heydt, Dijkstra, Brinkhuis, 2014: Emplacement of Antarctic ice sheet mass affects circumpolar ocean flow, Global and Planetary Change link pdf
- Rugenstein, Winton, Stouffer, Griffies, Hallberg, 2013: Northern high latitude heat budget decomposition and transient warming, J. Climate link pdf
Manuscripts in review or revision
- Fredericks, Rugenstein, Thompson, Van Loon, Falasca, Basinski-Ferris, Ceppi, Wu, Bloch-Johnson, Alessi, Kang: Quantifying the radiative response to surface temperature variability: A critical comparison of current methods link submVan Loon and Rugenstein: Spatial Controls of Lower Tropospheric Stability link subm