Climate Dynamics at Colorado State University
We are using conceptual energy balance models, climate models of low and high resolution, and observations to study how the ocean influences atmospheric feedbacks on large scales and stores and redistributes heat. We like thinking about first-order controls on Earth’s climate, the concept of climate forcings, deep time paleo climate, internal variability, and the theory and sociology of science.
Group members
Postdoc position available, please reach out!
Maria Rugenstein email, Since 2020, I am an assistant professor for climate dynamics at the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University in Fort Collins. I studied at ETH Zürich, completed my Master's research at Princeton University/GFDL, and dived into paleoclimate research for two years in Utrecht, before completing my PhD in Zürich with visits to Stanford University and the Carnegie Institute for Global Ecology and a PostDoc at MPI in Hamburg. I coordinated a model intercomparison of millennia long simulations of global coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Models, LongRunMIP, together with Jonah Bloch-Johnson, and initiated the Green's Function Model Intercomparison, lead by Jonah. Check out this US-clivar workshop on the pattern effect I chaired together with Cristi Proistosescu. My group is funded by NASA (NIP), NSF (CLD and P2C2), and NOAA (MAPP).Marc Alessi, 4th year PhD student, websiteYiyu Zheng, 3rd year PhD student, websiteDhyey Solanki, 1st year PhD studentLeif Fredericks, 2nd year Master's studentOlivia Lee, 1st year Master's studentKillian McSweeney, 1st year Master's studentSenne Van Loon, PostDoc, websiteShreya Dhame, PostDoc at Max-Planck in Hamburg, websiteFormer group members: Dirk Olonscheck (now PostDoc at MPI); Kenneth Tam (now graduate student at Rutgers University)Publications
- Olonscheck and Rugenstein, 2024 Coupled climate models systematically underestimate radiation response to surface forcing, GRL linkBloch-Johnson, Rugenstein, Alessi, and 10 others, 2024 The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol, JAMES linkRugenstein, Dhame, Olonscheck, Wills, Watanabe, Seager, 2023 Connecting the SST pattern problem and the hot model problem, GRL linkRugenstein, Zelinka, Karnauskas, Ceppi, Andrews, 2023 Patterns of Surface Warming Matter for Climate Sensitivity, EOS linkAlessi and Rugenstein, 2023 Relevance of the pattern effect for near-future climate projections, GRL linkMitevski, Dong, Polvani, Rugenstein, Orbe, 2023: Non-monotonic feedback dependence on CO2 due to North Atlantic pattern effect, GRL linkRugenstein and Hakuba, 2023: Connecting Hemispheric Asymmetries of Planetary Albedo and Surface Temperature, GRL linkFredriksen, Smith, Modak, Rugenstein, 2023: 21st century scenario forcing increases more for CMIP6 than CMIP5 models, GRL linkBloch-Johnson, Rugenstein, Gregory, Cael, Andrews, 2022: Climate impact assessments should not discount 'hot' models, Nature linkSanderson and Rugenstein, 2022: Potential for bias in effective climate sensitivity from state-dependent energetic imbalance, Earth System Dynamics linkZheng, Rugenstein, Pieper, Beobide-Arsuaga, Baehr, 2022: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability in equilibrated warmer climates, Earth System Dynamics linkBonan, Thompson, Newsom, Sun, Rugenstein, 2022: Transient and Equilibrium Responses of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation to Warming in Coupled Climate Models: The Role of Temperature and Salinity, J. Climate linkFredriksen, Rugenstein, Graversen, 2021: Estimating forcing with a nonconstant feedback parameter and linear response, JGR Atmospheres linkLu, He, Fuso, Rugenstein, 2021: Mechanisms of Fast Walker Circulation Responses to CO2 Forcing, GRL link pdfKing, and 9 others, 2021: Transient and quasi-equilibrium climate states at 1.5C and 2C global warming, Earth's Future linkCallahan, Chen, Rugenstein, Bloch-Johnson, Yang, Moyer, 2021: Robust decrease in ENSO amplitude under long-term warming, Nature Climate Change linkSchwarzwald, Poppick, Rugenstein, Bloch-Johnson, Wang, McInerney, Moyer, 2021: Changes in Future Precipitation Mean and Variability across Scales, J. Climate linkBloch-Johnson, Rugenstein, Stolpe, Rohrschneider, Zheng, Gregory, 2020: Climate Sensitivity Increases Under Higher CO2 Levels Due to Feedback Temperature Dependence, GRL linkSherwood, Webb and 22 others, 2020: A combined assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity, Rev. of Geophys. press coverage press coverageFiedler, and 24 others, 2020: Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed Across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), MWR linkKnutti, Rugenstein, Hegerl, 2017: Beyond climate sensitivity, Nature Geoscience link updated Figure
- Rugenstein, Sedlacek, Knutti, 2016: Nonlinearities in patterns of long term ocean warming, GRL link pdf
- Knutti and Rugenstein, 2015: Feedbacks, climate sensitivity and the limits of linear models, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A link pdf
- Rugenstein, Stocchi, von der Heydt, Dijkstra, Brinkhuis, 2014: Emplacement of Antarctic ice sheet mass affects circumpolar ocean flow, Global and Planetary Change link pdf
- Rugenstein, Winton, Stouffer, Griffies, Hallberg, 2013: Northern high latitude heat budget decomposition and transient warming, J. Climate link pdf
Manuscripts in review or revision
- Joensson, Rugenstein, Bender, McCoy, Eidhammer A recipe for simulating the observed interhemispheric albedo symmetry and constraining cloud radiative feedbacksDhame, Olonscheck, Rugenstein No robust improvement in biases of the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature mean state and trends in high resolution climate modelsThompson, Rugenstein, Forster Observed Relationships Between the Global Mean Radiative Flux and Regional Temperatures: The Preeminence of the Southeast Tropical PacificRugenstein and Barnes Convolutional Neural Networks trained on internal variability predict forced response through learning the pattern effectAlessi and Rugenstein Potential near-term wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific cooling trend reversesLiu, Li, Li, Rugenstein, Thomas, A swing of the inter-tropical convergence zone driven by delayed Southern Ocean warming and heat uptake reductionKing, Brown, Harrington, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Rugenstein The recent climate in the context of of a Paris Agreement 1.5degree world